Guides | Sentieo https://sentieo.com/category/guides/ Fri, 08 Jul 2022 18:18:35 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.0.7 Go Ahead And Say It: Expletives Are On The Rise In Conference Calls https://sentieo.com/go-ahead-and-say-it-expletives-are-on-the-rise-in-conference-calls/ Wed, 27 Apr 2022 12:00:00 +0000 https://sentieo.com/?p=13954 Quarterly calls by publicly traded companies are usually relatively staid affairs, with corporate executives delivering carefully prepared remarks and answering highly detailed questions by their Wall Street coverage analysts.  So when we released our white paper on the increase in expletives on conference calls earlier this year, it caused somewhat of a sensation in the...

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Quarterly calls by publicly traded companies are usually relatively staid affairs, with corporate executives delivering carefully prepared remarks and answering highly detailed questions by their Wall Street coverage analysts. 

So when we released our white paper on the increase in expletives on conference calls earlier this year, it caused somewhat of a sensation in the media:

Who says that our award-winning AI search has to be used only for serious purposes? You can see how we use our Deal Hunter Dashboard to find free food, free admissions to events, and sweepstakes, and how we used other parts of the platform to track the surge in Plan B contraceptive searches following Valentine’s Day, as well as the never-ending popularity of pumpkin spice lattes.  

You can download the original white paper here (no email required), with all the stats and selected anonymized quotes. 

Finally, we have some good news, or bad news, depending on your perspective: the trend is still up in Q1 2022. There were 50 transcripts in Q1 2022 that contained expletives, versus 42 in Q1 2021. 

The CEO of a US retailer gave this perspective on his career in March: “I just don’t think there’s a lot of people in business today, except for Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and, I don’t know, George Soros and just a handful. If you had wisdom in 1980, you kind of get into your years of wisdom in your 50s and start to get wise. If I look back and go to my ’30s, I really didn’t do anything. I just like worked really hard. In my 40s, I just got better. I could get (expletive) done and kind of see a bigger picture. In my 50s, I started seeing a much bigger picture. And in my late 50s and 60s, I think I’ve kind of gained a lot of wisdom, and I can see a much bigger playing field than I could.”

The CEO of an industrial company explained the danger of customer concentration in March as well: “You have to have very little customer concentration. We don’t want to deal with 1 or 2 customers that can just beat the (expletive) out of you and control what you do, we want to control what we do.”

More recently, in April, the founder and CEO of a tech company discussed infosec buyer preferences: “They don’t want the suites. They don’t want to bundle because they know that in a bundle might be 7 products, but 2 or 3 of them are (expletive) anyway.”

Want to see how we used the Sentieo Financial Intelligence Platform to conduct this research and try it for yourself? Get in touch.

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Top 4 Transcript Topics from Q4 2021 https://sentieo.com/top-4-transcript-topics-from-q4-2021/ Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:27:33 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=13072 With Q4 reporting still ongoing, we used Sentieo’s award-winning AI-powered search to surface and visualize the top four topics from corporate transcripts: inflation, labor, omicron, and supply chain. We also added several illustrative quotes on each issue from a variety of prominent companies. Frequently, two or three of these topics are mentioned in the same...

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With Q4 reporting still ongoing, we used Sentieo’s award-winning AI-powered search to surface and visualize the top four topics from corporate transcripts: inflation, labor, omicron, and supply chain. We also added several illustrative quotes on each issue from a variety of prominent companies. Frequently, two or three of these topics are mentioned in the same sentence, illustrating their importance in the current business environment.

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%&#@!: is Swearing on the Rise on Conference Calls https://sentieo.com/is-swearing-on-the-rise-on-conference-calls/ Fri, 14 Jan 2022 18:12:20 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12846 Yes, it is. 2021 was a record year for expletives in conference calls. Our research shows that 166 transcripts contained expletives in 2021, above 104 in 2020, 112 in 2019, 92 in 2018, and 123 in 2017. Thankfully, we did not need to use our rich vocabulary for this data since all expletives are simply...

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Yes, it is.

2021 was a record year for expletives in conference calls. Our research shows that 166 transcripts contained expletives in 2021, above 104 in 2020, 112 in 2019, 92 in 2018, and 123 in 2017.

Thankfully, we did not need to use our rich vocabulary for this data since all expletives are simply listed as (expletive) in our global transcripts database. So, go ahead, and (expletive) say it.

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Discovering Sentieo: Top Webinars, Guides, and Blog Posts https://sentieo.com/discovering-sentieo-top-webinars-guides-and-blog-posts/ Tue, 02 Nov 2021 12:48:55 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12657 “I did not know you could do that in Sentieo” is something we hear quite often from the users of our award-winning research platform, from advanced search, to complex screening and data visualizations. To address this frequent feedback, we decided to share some of our top webinars, guides, and blog posts in one place below. ...

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“I did not know you could do that in Sentieo” is something we hear quite often from the users of our award-winning research platform, from advanced search, to complex screening and data visualizations. To address this frequent feedback, we decided to share some of our top webinars, guides, and blog posts in one place below. 

On Demand Webinars 

“Liberate yourself from Ctrl-F” (Part 2) – the Advanced user version of our Document Search webinar continues to be very popular with existing clients. We go over more advanced functions, such as document section searches, speaker searches, footnote searches, combining multiple Boolean operators, dynamic synonym suggestions, workflows around watchlists, qualitative factors, document trends, NLP heatmaps, NLP topics, redlining, table chaining and visualization, and more. 

“Advanced data visualization” – another Advanced version of our module-focused webinars, this webinar focuses on Sentieo’s data visualization engine Plotter. We go over advanced hybrid series such as rolling correlations, sector-level relative valuation and profit pool analysis, dashboard templates, benchmarking visualizations, and more. 

“Sentieo for ESG Research”– in this webinar, we go over how the full platform can be used specifically for ESG research, and ESG research management. We go over advanced queries, available ESG document sets, ESG-specific dashboards and visualizations. We also discuss the need for proper research management: from templates for notes from management meetings to proxy voting records to dashboards, version control, and auditability. 

Guides

 A New Approach to ESG Research Integration– this guide is designed to help institutional investors explore a new, integrated approach to ESG research management that can overcome the challenges and maximize the opportunities of ESG investing.

Gaining Competitive Advantage with Investment Research Through the Use of Artificial Intelligence and Other Technologies– this guide from Harvard Business Review Analytic Services looks at the direct applications of modern technologies in the research process, from tackling unstructured data to holistic workflow strategies. 

A New Generation of Research Management Systems– this Celent Briefing note goes over the must-haves in modern research management systems. Creating, systematizing, searching, and protecting internally-generated IP is a common problem for all knowledge-heavy organizations. 

Financial Data Visualization and Analysis Guide– in this guide, we go over a range of financial data visualizations and analyses in Sentieo’s data visualization engine Plotter. Every example has an embedded in-pdf video for a direct “how to” demonstration. 

Blog Posts

8 Ways to Integrate ESG Research for UN PRI Compliance (March 2021) – the increasing importance of the PRI initiative is evidenced by both the growth in signatories and AUM. In this blog post, our head product specialist goes over some of the ways our clients integrate ESG into their workflow inside the Sentieo research platform. 

Sentieo Platform Integrations Facilitate Enterprise Deployments (May 2021) – extensive integrations are a must for any research platform looking to unite internal and external IP alongside existing productivity tools like Slack and Outlook. In this blog, we go over some of the existing platform integrations currently deployed by our 1,100+ institutional and corporate clients. 

Freight Woes Threaten The Holiday Shopping Season (September 2021) – while the port congestion problems are headline news now, we saw the dire retailer inventory levels in the data back in August using our platform to analyze the sector. See the sector-level analysis and visualizations, and more.

Using AI to Find the Key Themes This Earnings Season: Office REITs Hurt by Slow Return to the Office (November 2020) – the “ great return to the office” has had several false starts globally. In this blog, we use Sentieo’s NLP applications to see what is happening in the sector, from section redlining heatmaps to transcript topic classifications across peers. 

To stay up to date on everything happening with Sentieo, follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, and YouTube

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How to Turn Investment Research into Competitive Advantage: Putting AI Tools Into Action https://sentieo.com/how-to-turn-investment-research-into-competitive-advantage-putting-ai-tools-into-action/ Wed, 21 Jul 2021 14:45:14 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12240 In the first two blogs in this series on turning investment research into competitive advantage, based on a briefing paper we sponsored with the Harvard Business Review, we discussed some of the challenges analysts face when researching opportunities and how tools leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) can provide a solution. In this final blog, we explore...

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How to Turn Investment Research into Competitive Advantage card

In the first two blogs in this series on turning investment research into competitive advantage, based on a briefing paper we sponsored with the Harvard Business Review, we discussed some of the challenges analysts face when researching opportunities and how tools leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) can provide a solution.

In this final blog, we explore how AI can improve workflows and best practices for putting these tools into action.

A central source

Analysts are probably more interested in the potential applications of AI tools like semantic analysis, topic modeling, and named entity recognition rather than the science behind them. After all, the way they add value is through ease of use and by enhancing the research process.

Take an investment thesis, for example. Once an analyst completes a thesis, in many cases, it’s saved in a folder on the company server and then sent to a portfolio manager attached to an email. Tracking it down months later because a relevant opportunity has emerged is a waste of an analyst’s time. 

A centralized platform which uses AI to curate theses, notes, and presentations, is a much more efficient way of storing research output. Hosting the platform on the cloud means that analysts can upload or retrieve information from any device, while it also gives research directors a real-time overview of the team’s workflow. Incidentally, cloud computing has become an essential technology during the pandemic- spending is expected to increase by 30% this year across all industries, according to Forrester Research.  

A centralized platform also helps develop a more robust investment thesis. When a firm produces research on two companies within the same industry, variations in the approach taken by the analysts could lead to missed opportunities or, even worse, poor investment decisions. But when that information is presented in a standardized format, it’s more likely to highlight qualitative differences between the companies rather than inconsistencies in the way the analysts work. 

A regulatory paper trail

Staying on the right side of the regulatory authorities, especially in a sector as heavily regulated as finance, helps firms avoid hefty penalties issued for compliance breaches and prevents the inevitable damage to their reputation. A centralized platform effectively creates a paper trail, so if the regulator asks a firm to justify an investment decision or a response to a corporate action, the relevant information can be quickly and easily accessed.

Making the case

While AI tools may seem like the perfect solution to the information overload suffered by many analysts, poor implementation can add to the burden. As with any digital transformation project, firms must fully understand what problems they’re addressing and the capabilities of their people.

Having a change management strategy in place is important so analysts know why and how you’re introducing a new solution. It should also ease any concerns about technology eventually replacing them.

But don’t let these considerations allow your firm to delay making a decision- those that fail to embrace the latest innovations risk losing ground to their more tech-savvy competitors.

Download the full briefing paper here.

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How to Turn Investment Research into Competitive Advantage: Leveraging AI https://sentieo.com/how-to-turn-investment-research-into-competitive-advantage-leveraging-ai/ Thu, 15 Jul 2021 16:25:15 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12228 We recently published a briefing paper with the Harvard Business Review about how artificial intelligence (AI) can turn investment research into competitive advantage. In the first post of a series summarizing the findings, we discussed some of the challenges analysts face due to information overload.  Technology may have contributed to this overload, but it can...

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We recently published a briefing paper with the Harvard Business Review about how artificial intelligence (AI) can turn investment research into competitive advantage. In the first post of a series summarizing the findings, we discussed some of the challenges analysts face due to information overload. 

Technology may have contributed to this overload, but it can also help to manage it. So in this post, we’re going to explore how advances in AI, machine learning, and natural language processing have led to the development of tools which analysts can use to overcome these challenges and supercharge the hunt for alpha. While none of these tools replace humans, they augment the decision-making process and ultimately help to build stronger investment cases. 

Profit and margin are two key pieces of information when researching a company. But how many other terms can be used to describe the same thing? Profit has 45 synonyms according to thesaurus.com, and margin has 30. Different meanings typically cause programmes designed to do investment research to return a lot of useless information from scanned documents. However, semantic analysis algorithms understand sentences by breaking down their structure and recognizing combinations of words, making sure analysts only receive the most relevant results. 

Analysts can use a process called topic modelling to uncover major themes within a document or a set of documents. Algorithms can be trained to scan pages of text and detect patterns or recurring words to reveal the topics that come up most frequently.  

AI tools can crunch numerical data as well as textual data. They automate the tasks of identifying trends hidden in the numbers and comparing a company’s results with previous financial years or their competitors. Eliminating the need to copy and paste figures from one spreadsheet to another and having to ask a colleague to double-check their work for accuracy, means analysts can focus their efforts on processing the data and uncovering investment opportunities they might have otherwise missed.  

Certain employees are critical to a company’s success. While the passing of Steve Jobs was widely mourned, the departure of Apple’s Chief Design Officer Jony Ives didn’t make as many headlines, even though he played an intricate role in the design of the iPhone (not to mention the company’s other products). Analysts can now keep track of executives and employees as they move from one job to another using named entity recognition, which takes into account variations such as middle initials or misspellings.   

Market sentiment has a major influence on share prices. Emotions like overconfidence or fear lead to inefficiencies which provide a valuable source of alpha. That’s why many analysts are keen to capture the mood of investors. Sentiment analysis tracks what executives are saying about a company, which can then be compared with statements from competitors or commentary by other analysts in the financial media or on social media.  

In the third and final blog post in this series, we’ll explore how AI can improve workflows and some best practices for putting these tools into action. Alternatively, you can download the full briefing paper here

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How to Turn Investment Research into Competitive Advantage https://sentieo.com/how-to-turn-investment-research-into-competitive-advantage/ Tue, 06 Jul 2021 15:38:38 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12214 Sentieo recently partnered with the Harvard Business Review (HBR) to publish a briefing paper explaining how research powered by artificial intelligence (AI) can provide a source of competitive advantage for investment firms. The paper highlighted how inefficient research processes can hinder a firm’s pursuit of alpha and while technology is part of the cause, intensifying...

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Sentieo recently partnered with the Harvard Business Review (HBR) to publish a briefing paper explaining how research powered by artificial intelligence (AI) can provide a source of competitive advantage for investment firms. The paper highlighted how inefficient research processes can hinder a firm’s pursuit of alpha and while technology is part of the cause, intensifying the flow of information, it can also play a role in the solution.

In this first of a series of three blog posts summarising the paper’s findings, we explore some of the challenges that analysts face when researching investment opportunities.

Information overload

Companies across all industries struggle with the sheer volume of information they must process. Research by HBR in 2019 showed that 82% of respondents struggled with analyzing unstructured data and 77% relied on manual methods. The burden is even greater in the investment industry due to the regulatory demands of listed companies. The Securities and Exchange Commission alone processes around 3,000 filings each day.

Many analysts also need to research industry trends to build a credible investment thesis. That means combing through additional layers of information. For instance, one database of North American manufacturers covers half a million suppliers and has published 300,000 articles.

All this information comes in different formats, which makes it hard to collate. Analysts typically monitor a range of sources when researching a company. A news story on the Wall Street Journal may prompt an idea which requires further investigation through search engines, data terminals and reports. That’s why the information is known as unstructured- it comes as spreadsheets, PDFs, videos and even social media posts.

In the absence of a central platform, most analysts build their own system to track developments, manage the information they gather and share it with colleagues. How much of it gets lost in the process is anyone’s guess.

To uncover insights, analysts must spend countless hours sifting through the information manually. But that’s hardly an effective use of their time. Minor distractions, such as searching for an email, on their own may not cause much disruption, but they add up. Valuable nuggets of information could also be hidden in instant messages, Slack channels and transcripts from virtual meetings. These distractions eventually affect an employee’s happiness and productivity, especially when that employee is a highly qualified analyst.

You didn’t hire these well-paid individuals to organize information, you hired them to analyze it and come up with actionable ideas which will help your firm deliver benchmarking-beating returns. After all, information inefficiencies lead to alpha which sets active managers apart from passive investments like exchange-traded funds and index trackers. This added value has become particularly important as money flows out of actively managed funds and into passive funds.

Analysts need access to tools to do their job more efficiently, but the investment industry has traditionally been slow to adopt new technologies. So in the next blog in this series, we’ll explore how AI, machine learning and natural language processing can help to ease the burden of information overload. Alternatively, you can download the full briefing paper here.

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39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends: Final Highlights https://sentieo.com/39-post-pandemic-consumer-trends-final-highlights/ Mon, 21 Jun 2021 18:46:24 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12184 Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts. Over the last couple...

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Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts.

Over the last couple of weeks, we highlighted and updated a few of the trends here, and here, more recently. In this final installment, we look at the growth in interest in the crypto economy, in cannabis, and in concert-going. Finally, we look at the multi-year low in pet adoption interest: getting a “pandemic puppy” is no longer popular. 

“Crypto jobs”

Searches for general employment in the growing crypto economy continue to have a great 2021. We did note on our blog in February that bitcoin re-emerged as a topic in Q4 conference calls, while blockchain did not. The interest in the space continues to grow (see our data in Investor Relations Magazine). 

Sentieo chart

In our guidebook, we discussed the jobs dynamics as the “traditional” financial services industry expands its offerings for clients with services like custody. While a direct BTC ETF has yet to be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, we continue to see MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) adding BTC to its holdings. 

BTC price chart

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The drawdowns from the recent top for both BTC and MSTR look like this.

BTC MSTR price chart

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“Dispensary”

Searches for “dispensary” continue to do very well, with 2021 over 2020 over 2019 over 2018, as U.S. states continue to legalize cannabis products, and the market anticipates federal-level legalization. We wrote about the cannabis industry as an investable theme in our US Presidential Elections white papers as a part of the “Biden Basket” (which did much better than both the “Trump Basket” and the overall S&P 500: see the 100 Days follow-up here). 

Sentieo chart

We can see the recent increase in transcripts (monthly count) that mention “SAFE Act” or “SAFE Banking Act”.

Transcripts Safe act graph

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The strong investor interest in the space has resulted in the rollout, pun intended, of a number of ETF products from a number of issuers, including MSOS, MJ, TOKE, and THCX. 

Stocks MSOS MJ TOKE THCX charts

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“Concerts”

Search interest in concerts is coming back as restrictions globally continue to ease. Concerts have a very distinctive seasonal pattern, with a summer peak, and then another, smaller, peak during the winter holiday season. Unlike other categories that had a dramatic COVID drop, interest in concerts stayed very low throughout 2020 but is now staging a gradual recovery. 

Sentieo chart

This fact has not been lost on the markets though: Live Nation’s (NYSE:LYV) market capitalization reached all time highs already in January of 2021, well ahead of the search interest inflection upwards (see why The New York Times Dealbook liked our Netflix-to-Live Nation stock price ratio as an indicator of the covid recovery). 

LYV Market cap chart

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Wall Street analysts have been bullish on the name as well: we can see the revenue estimates for 2022 and 2023 have been moving upwards for months. 

Analyst estimates chart

“Pet Adoption”

Interest in “pet adoption” is at multi-year low after the COVID surge. We noted the weakness in our original white paper. Bloomberg reported on new “pet parents” trying to return their pets, while a journalist’s write-up on how they put down their healthy but aggressive adopted dog after six months of ownership generated controversy.   

Sentieo chart

The “pet complex” continues to do well, however, with stock prices well above the pre-COVID levels for Chewy, Trupanion, and FreshPet. We’re also seeing newer public offerings coming, like BarkBox aka The Original BARK Company (a SPAC merger, ticker BARK) and Petco (with another cute ticker, WOOF)

Stock prices CHRY TRUP FRPT

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To learn more about Sentieo’s versatile data visualization and analysis capabilities, watch our Basic and Advanced data viz webinars.

Download the report to read about all 39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends.

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39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends: Additional Highlights https://sentieo.com/39-post-pandemic-consumer-trends-additional-highlights/ Tue, 15 Jun 2021 17:00:00 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12173 Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts. A few days ago,...

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Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts. A few days ago, on our blog, we highlighted a few of the trends, and, in this post, we will highlight and expand on another set of these interesting developments. 

“Sunscreen”

Searches for “sunscreen” continue to do very well. We can observe that they had been growing overall year over year in the second half of 2020 after a dip in the first half, probably as a part of the Outdoor trend (see our write-up from last summer here). It looks like people are more than ready to spend more time in the sun. 

Sentieo chart

We are also seeing a recovery in the revenue growth estimates for Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE:EPC) as well as the company’s EV/NTM EBITDA multiple. EPC owns a number of personal care brands, including the popular sunscreens Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic. 

EPX revenue chart

“Seaworld” “Six Flags” “Busch Gardens” “Epic Pass” “Ikon Pass”

US domestic leisure travel continues to look great. In the original trendbook, we highlighted the recovery in both Seaworld and Six Flags (see our write-up using transcript NLP on the Six Flags call in the depth of the COVID crisis). We can widen the trend with other searches: Busch Gardens, another leisure destination brand owned by SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS), has fully recovered. 

“Seaworld” 

Seaworld chart

“Six Flags”

Six flags chart

“Busch Gardens”

Busch Gardens chart

We are also observing strong (all-time highs in some weeks) year-to-date interest in ski passes. Both the Epic Pass, sold by Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) and its newer competitor, the Ikon Pass, are doing very well. 

“Epic Pass”

Epic pass chart

“Ikon Pass”

Ikon pass chart

This strength can be seen in the steep upward revenue estimates revisions for the domestic leisure-focused airlines, like Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) and Spirit (NYSE:SAVE). For more information on the domestic airlines, watch our webinar with the sector head at Third Bridge, an independent expert research provider integrated into Sentieo.

Analyst estimate chart
Analyst estimate chart

We are seeing the strength in the reported results as well: for example, Vail’s ETP (Effective Ticket Price) for the quarter that just ended was on par or higher than prior years’, while total skier visits were up 36% (vs drop of 26% in the same quarter last year, and 14% growth YoY in 2019 pre-COVID).

Table Explorer chart
Table Explorer chart

For more information on our ML-based table identification, chaining, and visualization tool Table Explorer, watch this short workflow video

“Pizza” is out

We highlighted the year-over-year drop in global searches for pizza in the second part of our trendbook where we looked at what is happening with COVID winners, from Zoom backgrounds to sweatpants. The trend has continued since the publication of the trendbook: searches are well under 2020, and in-line with several prior years. 

Pizza chart

We can also see this reflected in the average EV/NTM EBITDA multiple of the larger global pizza players: there has been a decline over the last few months. We are looking at Domino’s Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), its publicly traded franchisee groups in the UK and Australia, Domino’s Pizza Group PLC (LON:DOM) and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. (ASX:DMP), as well as Papa John’s International (NASDAQ:PZZA).

DPZ PZZA DMP chart

(public viewer chart)

To learn more about Sentieo’s versatile data visualization and analysis capabilities, watch our Basic and Advanced data viz webinars.

Download the report to read about all 39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends.

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39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends: Selected Highlights https://sentieo.com/39-post-pandemic-consumer-trends-selected-highlights/ Mon, 07 Jun 2021 16:59:19 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12165 Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts.  Below we highlight three...

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Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts. 

Below we highlight three trends from the consumer report: all utilize our “stacked” search trends visualization in the Mosaic module of the Sentieo platform, and are updated with the latest data. 

“Mom jeans”

Interest in this specific style of denim bottoms is at all-time highs (going back to 2004). In the white paper, we also include an industry CEO quote on the more forgiving fits and fabrics currently experiencing growth.

Mom jeans chart

The market is certainly optimistic on denim: we are seeing all time highs for Kontoor Brands (a recent spin-off from VF Corporation), and multi-year highs for both American Eagle and Abercrombie. 

Stock prices KTB AEO chart

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Following the lockdowns, revenue growth on a YoY percentage basis for all three is expected to be strong into 2022.

Stock prices KTB AEO chart

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“Nicotine pouches”

Nicotine pouches are a reduced risk tobacco product, consisting of a small porous pouch, typically filled with cellulose, flavor, artificial sweetener, and a measured nicotine amount. Unlike electronic cigarettes/vaping, dosage control is much easier. 

Nicotine chart

The tobacco industry has been positive on the product, and we have seen a proliferation of brands from all the major players. The dividend yields for the sector are still high, relative to the 10-year treasury rate, perhaps as a results of the growth in ESG where a number of strategies outright exclude tobacco companies. Below we are showing the spread for Altria but the rest of the industry looks very similar.

Stocks MO chart

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“Paint store”

Paint store was one of the decelerating trends that we highlighted, following the COVID renovation bump last year. We can see that searches currently rank right at the 2017/2018 levels. 

Paint store chart

We are not quite seeing it yet in the stock prices of industry leaders Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Sherwin-Williams though the valuation of the large retailers (on an EV/NTM EBITDA basis) has started to contract.

Stocks prices HD LOW SHW chart

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EV/NTM EBITD chart

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Download the report to read about all 39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends.

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Running Sentieo’s Sentiment Model on Uploaded Documents: Benefits for Investor Relations https://sentieo.com/running-sentieos-sentiment-model-on-uploaded-documents-benefits-for-investor-relations/ Thu, 22 Apr 2021 13:29:00 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=12019 Over the last 12 months, we have participated in a variety of roundtable discussions and webinars on the topic of earnings prep for investor relations. These events helped us identify that industry-leading IR teams are constantly reviewing how their peers message topics when drafting their earnings calls. This has become a standard practice, but we...

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Over the last 12 months, we have participated in a variety of roundtable discussions and webinars on the topic of earnings prep for investor relations. These events helped us identify that industry-leading IR teams are constantly reviewing how their peers message topics when drafting their earnings calls. This has become a standard practice, but we are now seeing a new trend emerge. With algorithms on the rise that can pick up on sentiment and tonality, earnings calls are not just judged by what is said, but by how it is delivered. This is forcing IR teams to scrutinize every word their CEO/CFO is going to say to deliver the best messaging and have a successful earnings call.

What is Smart SummaryTM?

Sentieo introduced Smart Summary in 2019 to help financial analysts uncover insights from earnings calls by leveraging natural language processing. Smart Summary is a proprietary machine learning model created by Sentieo that is meant to mimic the analysis of an equity analyst on earnings calls, both classifying language into different buckets (i.e., business drivers, revenue, guidance, ESG) and overlaying sentiment to understand if something is positive, negative, or neutral in nature.

IR teams leverage Sentieo’s Smart Summary to see how the language on earnings calls is interpreted by algorithms designed with a buy-side lens. IR teams are able to easily compare how the same business topics have been discussed over time, and can analyze changes in sentiment at a topical level over time and across different companies/industries.

NLP heatmaps

Since the release of Smart Summary, IR teams have consistently asked: “Can I run Smart Summary’s model on my earnings call draft before we have our call?”

Introducing Smart Summary on Prepared Statements

So much time and effort goes into drafting prepared statements for an earnings call. Given volatility around earnings, it’s always nice to have a final spot-check. Algorithms driven by machine learning can pick up what the naked eye (or multiple sets of eyes) might miss.

With that in mind, we are opening up our Smart Summary model to our clients so they can test how their commentary will be interpreted before they have their earnings call. This will enable teams to test their prepared language on the fly to see:

  • How language will be classified: is this a business driver, does this fall under ESG, or does it sound like we are deflecting?
  • How sentiment is interpreted: are we using too much negative language when discussing our financials?
  • Compare side by side with your previously completed earnings calls: is there an obvious difference between how we are talking about competition and market share now vs. three months ago? Are we accomplishing our goal of changing our narrative around cost reduction and forward looking guidance?

Contact us to learn more about putting Smart Summary for uploaded documents to work in your earnings prep process.

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U.S. Election 2020 Investable Theme for Trump: Pipelines https://sentieo.com/u-s-election-2020-investable-theme-for-trump-pipelines/ Mon, 02 Nov 2020 13:00:00 +0000 https://sentieostg.local/?p=11091 In the weeks since the first U.S. presidential debate, we’ve covered some of the investable themes for both campaigns, including: higher education, police funding, cannabis decriminalization, private prisons, caregiving, credit reporting, and rural America. Just in time for tomorrow’s election, we’re reviewing the last of the investable themes for Trump: pipelines. New pipeline projects have...

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In the weeks since the first U.S. presidential debate, we’ve covered some of the investable themes for both campaigns, including: higher education, police funding, cannabis decriminalization, private prisons, caregiving, credit reporting, and rural America. Just in time for tomorrow’s election, we’re reviewing the last of the investable themes for Trump: pipelines.

New pipeline projects have come under political fire from many angles over the last few years: for example, here is the ACLU coming against the Keystone XL project and the American Library Association’s statement against the Dakota Access Pipeline.

While not present in President Trump’s bare-bones agenda, pipelines are featured in the separate “Promises Kept” website. In the Energy and the Environment section, we see mentions of Keystone XL, Dakota Access, and the New Burgos pipelines, along with LNG/energy exports claims as well as the opening up of extensive new areas for exploration, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and in the Gulf of Mexico.

And there is another angle that we uncovered: a number of publicly traded US pipelines are structured as Master Limited Partnerships (“MLPs” for short), a subset of publicly traded partnerships, in contrast to most “regular” stocks. MLPs are used for tax-efficient income and estate planning purposes, as described in this piece from Brookfield Asset Management.

AMLP TO BENEFIT

A Biden administration is likely to end at least the “step up” advantage (or loophole, if you prefer), as outlined in this Tax Policy Center analysis. We see pipelines as more attractive under an explicitly tax-, pipeline- and hydrocarbon-friendly president: our choice here is the industry index ETF, Alerian MLP ETF (NYSE: AMLP).

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You can read more in our reports: Six Stocks and One ETF for a Biden Presidency and Six Stocks and One ETF for a Trump Second Term. You can also find a synopsis of each theme on the Election 2020 home page as well as a preview of our U.S. Election 2020 Dashboard here.

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